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Article
Examining Driver Injury Severity in Intersection-Related Crashes Using Cluster Analysis and Hierarchical Bayesian Models
Accident Analysis and Prevention
  • Zhenning Li, University of Hawaii at Manoa
  • Cong Chen, University of South Florida
  • Yusheng Ci, Harbin Institute of Technology
  • Guohui Zhang, University of Hawaii at Manoa
  • Qiong Wu, University of Hawaii at Manoa
  • Cathy Liu, University of Utah
  • Zhen Qian, Carnegie Mellon University
Document Type
Article
Publication Date
1-1-2018
Keywords
  • cross-level interaction,
  • driver injury severity,
  • hierarchical bayesian model,
  • intersection-related crash,
  • k-means cluster analysis
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2018.08.009
Abstract

Traffic crashes are more likely to occur at intersections where the traffic environment is complicated. In this study, a hybrid approach combining cluster analysis and hierarchical Bayesian models is developed to examine driver injury severity patterns in intersection-related crashes based on two-year crash data in New Mexico. Three clusters are defined by K-means cluster analysis based on weather and roadway environmental conditions in order to reveal drivers’ risk compensation instability under diverse external environment. Hierarchical Bayesian random intercept models are developed for each of the three clusters as well as the whole dataset to identify the contributing factors on multilevel driver injury outcomes: property damage only (Level I), complaint of injury and visible injury (Level II), and incapacitating injury and fatality (Level III). Model comparison with an ordinary multinomial logistic model omitting crash data hierarchical features and cross-level interactions verifies the suitability and effectiveness of the proposed hybrid approach. Results show that a number of crash-level variables (time period, weather, light condition, area, and road grade), vehicle/driver-level variables (traffic controls, vehicle action, vehicle type, seatbelt used, driver age, drug/alcohol impaired, and driver age) along with some cross-level interactions (i.e., left turn and night, drug and dark) impose significantly influence driver injury severity. This study provides insightful understandings of the effects of these variables on driver injury severity in intersection-related crashes and beneficial references for developing effective countermeasures for severe crash prevention.

Citation / Publisher Attribution

Accident Analysis and Prevention, v. 120, p. 139-151

Citation Information
Zhenning Li, Cong Chen, Yusheng Ci, Guohui Zhang, et al.. "Examining Driver Injury Severity in Intersection-Related Crashes Using Cluster Analysis and Hierarchical Bayesian Models" Accident Analysis and Prevention Vol. 120 (2018) p. 139 - 151
Available at: http://works.bepress.com/cong-chen/12/