"Building the core of the Istat system of models for forecasting the Italian economy: MeMo-It" by Dr Claudio Vicarelli

Selected Works of Claudio Vicarelli

Article

Building the core of the Istat system of models for forecasting the Italian economy: MeMo-It

Rivista di Statistica Ufficiale (2013)

Dr Claudio Vicarelli, ISTAT

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Abstract

This paper provides a description of Istat’s new Macroeconometric Model MeMo-It. This is the tool used by Istat to produce bi-annual medium-term forecasts of the Italian economy since May 2012. The key model’s features are illustrated and compared with other modeling approaches used in the literature. The paper describes the theoretical foundations of the model along with the set of equations and their estimation. It also presents an assessment of model’s performance by focusing on the key multipliers

Keywords

macroeconometric models,
econometric forecasts,
theory-first vs data-first models,
model specification,
fiscal policy multipliers.

Disciplines

Macroeconomics

Publication Date

2013

Citation Information

Claudio Vicarelli. "Building the core of the Istat system of models for forecasting the Italian economy: MeMo-It" Rivista di Statistica Ufficiale Iss. 1 (2013)
Available at: http://works.bepress.com/claudio_vicarelli/30/