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Article
Forecasting industrial production and the early detection of turning points
Empirical Economics (2004)
  • Giancarlo Bruno
  • Claudio Lupi, University of Molise
Abstract

In this paper we propose a simple model to forecast industrial production in Italy up to 6 months ahead. We show that the forecasts produced using the model outperform some popular forecasts as well as those stemming from an ARIMA model used as a benchmark and those from some single equation alternative models. We show how the use of these forecasts can improve the estimate of a cyclical indicator and the early detection of turning points for the manufacturing sector. This is of paramount importance for short-term economic analysis.

Keywords
  • Forecasting,
  • VAR Models,
  • Industrial production,
  • Cyclical indicators
Publication Date
2004
Citation Information
Giancarlo Bruno and Claudio Lupi. "Forecasting industrial production and the early detection of turning points" Empirical Economics Vol. 29 Iss. 3 (2004)
Available at: http://works.bepress.com/claudio_lupi/13/