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Article
Uncertainty Quantification of Eruption Source Parameters Estimated From Tephra Fall Deposits
Geophysical Research Letters
  • R. Constantinescu, University of South Florida
  • J. T. White, INTERA Inc., Boulder, CO, USA
  • C. B. Connor, University of South Florida
  • A. Hopulele-Gligor, Independent Software Engineer, Cluj-Napoca, Romania
  • S. Charbonnier, University of South Florida
  • J.-C. Thouret, Université Clermont Auvergne, Laboratoire Magmas et Volcans, CNRS, OPGC et IRD, Aubière, France
  • J. M. Lindsay, University of Auckland
  • D. Bertin, University of Auckland
Document Type
Article
Publication Date
1-1-2022
Keywords
  • eruption source parameters,
  • uncertainty quantification,
  • eruption magnitude,
  • tephra fallout modeling,
  • tephra inversion
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL097425
Disciplines
Abstract

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) in eruption source parameters, like tephra volume, plume height, and umbrella cloud radius, is a challenge for volcano scientists because tephra deposits are often sparsely sampled due to burial, erosion, and related factors. We find that UQ is improved by coupling an advection-diffusion model with two Bayesian inversion approaches: (a) a robust but computationally expensive Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation algorithm, and (b) a more approximate but inexpensive parameter estimation algorithm combined with first-order, second-moment uncertainty estimation. We apply the two inversion methods to one sparsely sampled tephra fall unit from the 2070 BP El Misti (Peru) eruption and obtain: Tephra mass 0.78–1.4 × 1011 kg; umbrella cloud radius 4.5–16.5 km, and plume height 8–35 km (95% confidence intervals). These broad ranges demonstrate the significance of UQ for eruption classification based on mapped deposits, which has implications for hazard management.

Rights Information
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0
Citation / Publisher Attribution

Geophysical Research Letters, v. 49, issue 6, art. e2021GL097425

Citation Information
R. Constantinescu, J. T. White, C. B. Connor, A. Hopulele-Gligor, et al.. "Uncertainty Quantification of Eruption Source Parameters Estimated From Tephra Fall Deposits" Geophysical Research Letters Vol. 49 Iss. 6 (2022)
Available at: http://works.bepress.com/charles_connor/98/