Other
Probabilistic Methodology for Long-Term Assessment of Volcanic Hazards
Nuclear Technology
Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
7-1-2008
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
https://doi.org/10.13182/NT08-A3980
Disciplines
Abstract
Because of the difficulty of describing the complex spatial and temporal patterns inherent to volcanism, the use of solely deterministic models is not sufficient for long-term estimation of volcanic hazards. In order to account for the intrinsic uncertainty of volcanism that occurs in space and time and with respect to event types and their intensity, the use of probabilistic models becomes quite natural for long-term hazard assessment. Here, we discuss a range of probabilistic approaches to forecast the future spatial distribution of volcanism, including kernel, adaptive kernel, and Cox process methods. An application to the volcanic arc of Tohoku illustrates the proposed methodology.
Citation / Publisher Attribution
Nuclear Technology, v. 163, issue 1, p. 180-189
Citation Information
Olivier Jaquet, Charles B. Connor and Laura J. Connor. "Probabilistic Methodology for Long-Term Assessment of Volcanic Hazards" Nuclear Technology Vol. 163 Iss. 1 (2008) p. 180 - 189 Available at: http://works.bepress.com/charles_connor/9/