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Article
Estimating the Frequency of Volcanic Ash Clouds over Northern Europe
Earth and Planetary Science Letters
  • Elizabeth J. Watson, University of Leeds
  • Graeme T. Swindles, University of Leeds
  • Ivan P. Savov, University of Leeds
  • Ian T. Lawson, University of Leeds
  • Charles B. Connor, University of South Florida
  • J. A. Wilson, University of South Florida
Document Type
Article
Publication Date
2-1-2017
Keywords
  • cryptotephra,
  • reoccurrence,
  • survival analysis,
  • hazards,
  • eruptions,
  • Iceland
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2016.11.054
Disciplines
Abstract

Fine ash produced during explosive volcanic eruptions can be dispersed over a vast area, where it poses a threat to aviation, human health and infrastructure. Here, we focus on northern Europe, which lies in the principal transport direction for volcanic ash from Iceland, one of the most active volcanic regions in the world. We interrogate existing and newly produced geological and written records of past ash fallout over northern Europe in the last 1000 years and estimate the mean return (repose) interval of a volcanic ash cloud over the region to be 44±7 years. We compare tephra records from mainland northern Europe, Great Britain, Ireland and the Faroe Islands, with records of proximal Icelandic volcanism and suggest that an Icelandic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index rating (VEI) ≥ 4 and a silicic magma composition presents the greatest risk of producing volcanic ash that can reach northern Europe. None of the ash clouds in the European record which have a known source eruption are linked to a source eruption with VEI < 4. Our results suggest that ash clouds are more common over northern Europe than previously proposed and indicate the continued threat of ash deposition across northern Europe from eruptions of both Icelandic and North American volcanoes.

Rights Information
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0
Citation / Publisher Attribution

Earth and Planetary Science Letters, v. 460, p. 41-49

Citation Information
Elizabeth J. Watson, Graeme T. Swindles, Ivan P. Savov, Ian T. Lawson, et al.. "Estimating the Frequency of Volcanic Ash Clouds over Northern Europe" Earth and Planetary Science Letters Vol. 460 (2017) p. 41 - 49
Available at: http://works.bepress.com/charles_connor/47/