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Article
Exploring Links Between Physical and Probabilistic Models of Volcanic Eruptions: The Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat
Geophysical Research Letters
  • Charles B. Connor, University of South Florida
  • R. S. J. Sparks, University of Bristol
  • R. M. Mason, University of Bristol
  • Costanza Bonadonna, University of Bristol
  • S. R. Young, Pennsylvania State University
Document Type
Article
Publication Date
7-10-2003
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2003GL017384
Abstract

Probabilistic methods play an increasingly important role in volcanic hazards forecasts. Here we show that a probability distribution characterized by competing processes provides an excellent statistical fit (>99% confidence) to repose intervals between 75 vulcanian explosions of Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat in September–October, 1997. The excellent fit is explained by a physical model in which there are competing processes operating in the upper volcano conduit on different time scales: pressurization due to rheological stiffening and gas exsolution, and depressurization due to development of permeability and gas escape. Our experience with the Soufrière Hills Volcano eruption sequence suggests that volcanic eruption forecasts are improved by accounting for these different conduit processes explicitly in a single probability model.

Citation / Publisher Attribution

Geophysical Research Letters, v. 30, issue 13, art. 1701

© Copyright 2003, American Geophysical Union.

Citation Information
Charles B. Connor, R. S. J. Sparks, R. M. Mason, Costanza Bonadonna, et al.. "Exploring Links Between Physical and Probabilistic Models of Volcanic Eruptions: The Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat" Geophysical Research Letters Vol. 30 Iss. 13 (2003)
Available at: http://works.bepress.com/charles_connor/3/