With US and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) forces poised for a major drawdown from Afghanistan in 2014, and Russia determined to strengthen its influence in the “near abroad,” new uncertainties face the volatile post-Soviet Central Asian states. Changing power alignments in the region will pose new challenges for the United States, Russia, China, and the European Union. This article assesses the evolving direction of great-power interaction and influence in Central Asia, focusing on Moscow's growing assertiveness in the region. Using a neoclassical realist framework, I argue that geographic, historical, and cultural ties; a military presence; and developing economic institutions favor Russia over the short term, although China is best poised to expand regional influence over the long run. US war weariness, budget constraints, and distance suggest that—barring new major terrorist threats emanating from the region—Washington's presence and influence will gradually diminish.