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Modeling the potential impact of rectal microbicides to reduce HIV transmission in bathhouses
Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering (2006)
  • Romulus Breban, University of Georgia
  • Ian McGowan, UCLA
  • Chad M. Topaz, Macalester College
  • Elissa Schwartz, Washington State University
  • Peter Anton, UCLA
  • Sally Blower, UCLA
Abstract

We evaluate the potential impact of rectal microbicides for reducing HIV transmission in bathhouses. A new mathematical model describing HIV transmission dynamics among men who have sex with men (MSM) in bathhouses is constructed and analyzed. The model incorporates key features affecting transmission, including sexual role behavior (insertive and receptive anal intercourse acts), biological transmissibility of HIV, frequency and efficacy of condom usage, and, most pertinently, frequency and efficacy of rectal microbicide usage. To evaluate the potential impact of rectal microbicide usage, we quantify the effect of rectal microbicides (ranging in efficacy from 10% to 90%) on reducing the number of HIV infections in the bathhouse. We conduct uncertainty analyses to assess the effect of variability in both biological and behavioral parameters. We find that even moderately effective rectal microbicides (if used in 10% to 50% of the sex acts) would substantially reduce transmission in bathhouses. For example, a 50% effective rectal microbicide (used in 50% of sex acts) would reduce the number of secondary infections by almost 13% at disease invasion. Our modeling analyses show that even moderately effective rectal microbicides could be very effective prevention tools for reducing transmission in bathhouses and also potentially limit the spread of HIV in the community.

Disciplines
Publication Date
2006
Citation Information
Romulus Breban, Ian McGowan, Chad M. Topaz, Elissa Schwartz, et al.. "Modeling the potential impact of rectal microbicides to reduce HIV transmission in bathhouses" Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering Vol. 3 Iss. 3 (2006)
Available at: http://works.bepress.com/chad_topaz/5/