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Article
Biofuels: Potential Production Capacity, Effects on Grain and Livestock Sectors, and Implications for Food Prices and Consumers
Journal of Agricultural & Applied Economics
  • Dermot J. Hayes, Iowa State University
  • Bruce Babcock, Iowa State University
  • Jacinto F. Fabiosa, Iowa State University
  • Simla Tokgoz, Iowa State University
  • Amani Elobeid, Iowa State University
  • Tun-Hsiang E. Yu, University of Tennessee
  • Fengxia Dong, Iowa State University
  • Chad Hart, Iowa State University
  • Eddie Chavez, University of Arkansas
  • Suwen Pan, Texas Tech University
  • Miguel Carriquiry, Iowa State University
  • Jerome Dumortier, Iowa State University
Document Type
Article
Publication Version
Published Version
Publication Date
8-1-2009
DOI
10.1017/S1074070800002935
Abstract

We examined four evolution paths of the biofuel sector using a partial equilibrium world agricultural sector model in CARD that includes the new RFS in the 2007 EISA, a two-way relationship between fossil energy and biofuel markets, and a new trend toward corn oil extraction in ethanol plants. At one extreme, one scenario eliminates all support to the biofuel sector when the energy price is low, while the other extreme assumes no distribution bottleneck in ethanol demand growth when the energy price is high. The third scenario considers a pure market force driving ethanol demand growth because of the high energy price, while the last is a policy-induced shock with removal of the biofuel tax credit when the energy price is high. Standard results hold where the biofuel sector expands with higher energy price, raising the prices of most agricultural commodities through demand side adjustment channels for primary feedstocks and supply side adjustment channels for substitute crops and livestock. On the other hand, the biofuel sector shrinks coupled with opposite impacts on agricultural commodities with the removal of all support including the tax credit. Also, we find that given distribution bottlenecks, cellulosic ethanol crowds marketing channels resulting in a corn-based ethanol price that is discounted. The blenders’ credit and consumption mandates provide a price floor for ethanol and for corn. Finally, the tight linkage between the energy and agricultural sectors resulting from the expanding biofuel sector may raise the possibility of spillover effects of OPEC’s market power on the agricultural sector.

Comments

This article is published as Hayes, Dermot, Bruce Babcock, Jacinto Fabiosa, Simla Tokgoz, Amani Elobeid, Tun-Hsiang Yu, Fengxia Dong, Chad Hart, Eddie Chavez, Suwen Pan, Miguel Carriquiry and Jerome Dumortier, "Biofuels: Potential Production Capacity, Effects on Grain and Livestock Sectors, and Implications for Food Prices and Consumers," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics 41 (2009): 465–491, doi:10.1017/S1074070800002935.

Copyright Owner
Southern Agricultural Economics Association
Language
en
File Format
application/pdf
Citation Information
Dermot J. Hayes, Bruce Babcock, Jacinto F. Fabiosa, Simla Tokgoz, et al.. "Biofuels: Potential Production Capacity, Effects on Grain and Livestock Sectors, and Implications for Food Prices and Consumers" Journal of Agricultural & Applied Economics Vol. 41 Iss. 2 (2009) p. 465 - 491
Available at: http://works.bepress.com/chad-hart/160/