Article
Trends in case-fatality rates of covid-19 in the world between december, 2019 and august, 2020..pdf
Journal of Human Growth and Development
(2020)
Abstract
Introduction: CoV infections can potentially cause from a simple
cold to a severe respiratory syndrome, such as the Severe Acute
Respiratory Syndrome and the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome
(MERS-CoV). The COVID-19 created a new reality for global
healthcare delivery models.
Objective: To evaluate trends in case-fatality rates of COVID-19 in
the world.
Methods: We conducted a population-based time-series study
using public and official data of cases and deaths from COVID-19
in Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, France,
Germany, India, Iran, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand,
Nigeria, Peru, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, Spain,
Switzerland, United Kingdom, United States and Russia, between
December, 2019 and August, 2020. Data were based on reports
from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control.
COVID-19 was defined according to the International Classification
of Diseases, 10th revision (U07.1). A Prais-Winsten regression model
was performed and the Daily Percentage Change (DPC) determined
rates as increasing, decreasing or flat.
Results: During the study period, trends in case-fatality rates in the
world were flat (DPC = 0.3; CI 95% [-0.2: 0.7]; p = 0.225). In Africa,
Morocco had decreasing trends (DPC = -1.1; CI 95% [-1.5: -0.7]; p
< 0.001), whereas there were increasing trends in South Africa (p <
0.05) and flat trends in Nigeria (p > 0.05). In the Americas, Argentina
showed a decreasing trend in case-fatality rates (DPC = -0.6; CI 95%
[-1.1: -0.2]; p = 0.005), the U.S. had flat trends (p > 0.05) and all
other countries in the Americas had increasing trends (p < 0.05). In
Asia, Iran had decreasing trends (DPC = -1.5; CI 95% [-2.6 : -0.2];
p = 0.019); China and Saudi Arabia showed increasing trends (p
< 0.05), while in India, Japan and South Korea they were flat (p >
0.05). European countries had mostly increasing trends (p < 0.05):
Germany, Italy, Spain, the UK and Russia; France and Switzerland
had flat trends (p > 0.05). Finally, in Oceania, trends in case-fatality
rates were flat in Australia (p > 0.05) and increasing in New Zealand
(p < 0.05).
Conclusion: World trends in case-fatality rates of COVID-19 were
flat between December 31, 2019 and August 31, 2020. Argentina,
Iran and Morocco were the only countries with decreasing trends.
On the other hand, South Africa, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Colombia,
Mexico, Peru, China, Saudi Arabia, Germany, Spain, United Kingdom,
Russia and New Zealand had increasing trends in case-fatality
rates. All the other countries analyzed had flat trends. Based on case fatality rate data, our study supports that COVID-19 pandemic is still
in progress worldwide.
Keywords
- COVID-19,
- Trends,
- Case-Fatality,
- Epidemiology
Disciplines
Publication Date
September, 2020
DOI
10.7322/jhgd.v30.11063
Publisher Statement
this article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International
License (http://
creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and
reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made.
Citation Information
Henrique de Moraes Bernal, Carlos Eduardo Siqueira, Edige Santos and Fernando Adami. "Trends in case-fatality rates of covid-19 in the world between december, 2019 and august, 2020..pdf" Journal of Human Growth and Development Vol. 30 Iss. 3 (2020) p. 344 - 354 Available at: http://works.bepress.com/carlos_siqueira/57/
Creative Commons license
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons CC_BY-NC-SA International License.