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Article
Daily Stock Market Movement from Oscillating Social Mood Factors
A New Story Foundation (2011)
  • Cari Bourette, Western Kentucky University
Abstract

Since 2006, there has been ongoing research into the correlation of a set of oscillating mood factors and socioeconomic, geopolitical, and natural events with the goal of forecasting increased risks of destabilizing events. While promising results have been forthcoming, it has been difficult to present models that allowed those outside a small circle of specialists to participate. Between July 2007 and June 2010, weekly social mood projections, as published in monthly issues of MoodCompass, were used to develop a model to convert four oscillating mood factors into stock market expectations. This model was modified to generate signals of projected stock market movement for the day. A further study was then performed between September 1, 2011 and October 27, 2011, scoring top internet searches with the same Compass System, and using those scores to generate daily market expectations from this Market Mood Model. A significant relationship between internet search trends and daily stock market movement (p < 0.032) was found. This implies a relationship between the societal focus of the moment (i.e. social mood) and the relative health of the stock market, and should bring to question the long term effectiveness of market interventions made by policy makers while the perceived well-being of society at large continues to decline. Also, by affirming that the model can be scaled down to daily signals, further study of the mood factors' relationship to the market and other areas of interest should be facilitated, and research more easily extended to others unfamiliar with the Compass System methodology

Keywords
  • social mood,
  • forecast model,
  • economic,
  • socionomic,
  • stock market,
  • internet search trends,
  • market mood model,
  • compass system,
  • moodcompass
Publication Date
December 27, 2011
Citation Information
Cari Bourette. "Daily Stock Market Movement from Oscillating Social Mood Factors" A New Story Foundation (2011)
Available at: http://works.bepress.com/cari_bourette/2/