The recent standoff between NATO and Russia over Ukraine has now escalated into a full-scale Russian invasion. To understand the significance of the Russian attack, it is important to remember that attacking Ukraine in a show of unprovoked aggression represents the Russians’ second worst outcome. Preferably, of course, NATO would have acquiesced to Russia’s demands regarding its near abroad. To achieve that outcome, Russia’s most dangerous courses of action were not those that would have rendered NATO incapable of responding to its provocations, but those that rendered it unwilling to do so. Prior to invading Ukraine on February 24, Russia tried to impose strategic paralysis within its perceived sphere of influence by convincing both political leaders and the publics they serve that they would be worse off if they resisted. Given the currently unresolved conflict, the United States, NATO, and its partners are still scrambling to devise an adequate response.