Article
The Coming Collapse of the Paris Agreement
Harvard Journal on Legislation
(2017)
Abstract
Now that the US has abandoned the Paris Climate Agreement the question is whether the agreement will collapse. This essay argues that the agreement will likely unravel, perhaps not immediately, but eventually. While the world’s leaders have been quick to reaffirm their continued resolve to implement the agreement, the problem is that multilateral environmental agreements are uniquely fragile because their value depends directly upon the number of states that are party to it. Environmental agreements have a certain ‘all or nothing’ quality to them. They are thus extremely reliant on unanimity of agreement and uniquely sensitive to the loss of it. This dynamic renders multilateral environmental agreements extremely ‘tippy’ and highly susceptible to collapse. It is argued that the US’ withdrawal from the Paris Agreement—a reckless abdication of global leadership—is a powerful signal to the international system that coordination has faltered. The perception that commitment to the agreement may now also be flagging among other states will likely cause parties to not comply, becoming a self-fulfilling prophesy. As such, the essay concludes, while not yet manifest, a process of collapse has already been triggered, most likely irreversibly.
Keywords
- Paris Agreement,
- climate change,
- global warming,
- tipping,
- Trump
Disciplines
Publication Date
Summer August 16, 2017
Citation Information
Bryan Druzin, The Coming Collapse of the Paris Agreement, HARV. J. ON LEGIS. ONLINE (July 2017), http://harvardjol.com/2017/08/16/the-coming-collapse-of-the-paris-climate-agreement/