Article
How Cyber Operations can Reduce Escalation Pressures: Evidence From an Experimental Wargame Study
Journal of Peace Research
(2024)
Abstract
Cyber operations ranging from deception and espionage to disruption and high-end degradation have become a central feature of modern statecraft in the digital age, yet we lack a clear understanding of how decision-makers employ and respond to cyber operations in times of crisis. Our research provides theoretical mechanisms and empirical evidence for understanding how decision-makers react to cyber triggers and utilize cyber responses during crises. Specifically, we argue that the availability of cyber response creates off-ramps for non-escalatory engagement. Based on experimental wargames involving rival states with power parity in militarized disputes and randomized cyber triggers and response options, we find the availability of cyber response options reduces escalatory behavior via a substitution mechanism. In the absence of cyber response options, however, participants pursue more conventional, escalatory actions, regardless of the triggering mechanism. Our findings underscore how enhancing the availability of cyber response options might reduce strategic escalation risks and offer the space to bargain during periods of conflict.
Disciplines
Publication Date
January, 2024
DOI
10.1177/00223433231219440
Publisher Statement
Special Issue on Cyber-conflict
Citation Information
Benjamin Jensen, Brandon Valeriano and Sam Whitt. "How Cyber Operations can Reduce Escalation Pressures: Evidence From an Experimental Wargame Study" Journal of Peace Research Vol. 61 Iss. 1 (2024) p. 119 - 133 ISSN: 1460-3578 Available at: http://works.bepress.com/brandon-valeriano/59/