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Joint estimation of growth and survival from mark-recapture data to improves estimates of senescence in wild populations
Ecology (2019)
  • Beth Reinke, Northeastern Illinois University
  • Luke A. Hoekstra
  • Anne M. Bronikowski, Iowa State University
  • Fredric J. Janzen, Iowa State University
  • David A.W. Miller, Pennsylvania State University
Abstract
Understanding age-dependent patterns of survival is fundamental to predicting
population dynamics, understanding selective pressures, and estimating rates of senescence.
However, quantifying age-specific survival in wild populations poses significant logistical
and statistical challenges. Recent work has helped to alleviate these constraints by
demonstrating that age-specific survival can be estimated using mark-recapture data even when age is unknown for all or some individuals. However, previous approaches do not incorporate auxiliary information that can improve age estimates of individuals. We introduce a survival estimator that combines a von Bertalanffy growth model, age-specific hazard functions, and a Cormack-Jolly-Seber mark-recapture model into a single hierarchical framework. This approach allows us to obtain information about age and its uncertainty based on size and growth for individuals of unknown age when estimating age-specific survival. Using both simulated and real-world data for two painted turtle (Chrysemys picta) populations, we demonstrate that this additional information substantially reduces the bias of age-specific hazard rates, which allows for the testing of hypotheses related to aging. Estimating patterns of senescence is just one practical application of jointly estimating survival and growth; other applications include obtaining better estimates of the timing of recruitment and improved understanding of life-history trade-offs between growth and survival.
Publication Date
Summer July 30, 2019
Citation Information
Beth Reinke, Luke A. Hoekstra, Anne M. Bronikowski, Fredric J. Janzen, et al.. "Joint estimation of growth and survival from mark-recapture data to improves estimates of senescence in wild populations" Ecology (2019)
Available at: http://works.bepress.com/beth-reinke/8/