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Participation and crowd-out in a Medicare drug benefit: simulation estimates
Meyers Primary Care Institute Publications and Presentations
  • Dennis G. Shea, Penn State
  • Bruce Stuart, Johns Hopkins
  • Becky A. Briesacher, University of Massachusetts Medical School
UMMS Affiliation
Department of Medicine, Division of Geriatric Medicine; Meyers Primary Care Institute
Publication Date
Document Type
Aged; Computer Simulation; Cost Sharing; Drug Costs; Drug Prescriptions; Forecasting; Health Policy; Health Services Needs and Demand; Humans; Insurance, Pharmaceutical Services; Medicare; Models, Econometric; Patient Acceptance of Health Care; Proportional Hazards Models; Risk Assessment
This article provides information on likely participation in the Medicare prescription drug plan and expected crowd-out. We use a microsimulation model based on data from the MCBS to estimate the costs and benefits of a Medicare drug plan, including the benefits from reductions in risk. The simulations are repeated using different combinations of benefits and subsidies. In addition, the simulations explore the effects of different behavioral parameters for moral hazard (the extent to which participants increase drug spending in response to reduced costs) and risk aversion (the extent to which participants would be willing to pay to avoid risk) to identify the impact of these factors on participation and crowd-out.
Health Care Financ Rev. 2003 Winter;25(2):47-61. Link to article on publisher's website

At the time of publication, Becky Briesacher was not yet affiliated with the University of Massachusetts Medical School.

Related Resources
Link to Article in PubMed
PubMed ID
Citation Information
Dennis G. Shea, Bruce Stuart and Becky A. Briesacher. "Participation and crowd-out in a Medicare drug benefit: simulation estimates" Vol. 25 Iss. 2 (2004) ISSN: 0195-8631 (Linking)
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