Forecasting Inflation and the Great RecessionEconomic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago (2013)
This article shows how the recovery of inflation in 2009-10 occurred precisely at the only time (since 1985) the models would predict disinflation, i.e., inflation went up when the models said it should go down.
Citation InformationMarco Bassetto, Todd Messer and Christine Ostrowski. "Forecasting Inflation and the Great Recession" Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Vol. 37 Iss. 3 (2013)
Available at: http://works.bepress.com/bassetto/22/