We deviate from standard practice in the literature on state failure to use classification tree methods to predict state failure. We argue that the rarity of state failure and simplicity of use and interpretation makes this approach more attractive. We determine simple decision rules, based on observable and measurable variables, to determine whether a country is likely to fail or not.
- predicting state failure,
- classification tree approach
Available at: http://works.bepress.com/atinbasu/21/