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Unpublished Paper
Predicting State Failure: A Classification Tree Approach
VMI Economics Working Paper Series (2010)
  • Atin Basu Choudhary, Virginia Military Institute
  • Jim T Bang, Virginia Military Institute
  • William F Shughart II
Abstract

We deviate from standard practice in the literature on state failure to use classification tree methods to predict state failure. We argue that the rarity of state failure and simplicity of use and interpretation makes this approach more attractive. We determine simple decision rules, based on observable and measurable variables, to determine whether a country is likely to fail or not.

Keywords
  • predicting state failure,
  • classification tree approach
Publication Date
Winter December 27, 2010
Citation Information
Atin Basu Choudhary, Jim T Bang and William F Shughart II. "Predicting State Failure: A Classification Tree Approach" VMI Economics Working Paper Series (2010)
Available at: http://works.bepress.com/atinbasu/21/