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Article
Turkish tourism, exchange rates and income
Tourism Economics (2016)
  • Gokhan Akay
  • Atilla Cifter
  • Ozdemir Teke
Abstract
This study examines the effects of the exchange rate and income on Turkish tourism trade balance by using quarterly data for the period 1998–2011. The authors use tourism trade-weighted exchange rate indices and foreign income derived from country-based tourism trade. They employ Johansen’s maximum likelihood technique to estimate the long-run effects of the exchange rate and income on tourism, and employ an error correction model to analyse the short-run effects. The empirical results suggest that income is the most significant variable in explaining tourism trade balance in the long-run. The exchange rate and foreign income positively affect the trade balance, while domestic income negatively influences it. In the short run, however, domestic income is the only significant factor. The authors also find no evidence of a J-curve effect in the Turkish tourism trade balance. These findings are robust to using nominal values.
Keywords
  • Tourism trade balance,
  • J-curve,
  • exchange rate,
  • cointegration
Disciplines
Publication Date
Winter January 1, 2016
Citation Information
Gokhan Akay, Atilla Cifter and Ozdemir Teke. "Turkish tourism, exchange rates and income" Tourism Economics (2016)
Available at: http://works.bepress.com/atilla_cifter/17/