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Article
To Lean or Not to Lean Against an Asset Price Bubble? Empirical Evidence
Economic Inquiry
  • Anastasios Evgenidis, Newcastle University
  • A. (Tassos) G. Malliaris, Loyola University Chicago
Document Type
Article
Publication Date
10-1-2020
Pages
1958-1976
Publisher Name
Wiley
Disciplines
Abstract

Since the Global Financial Crisis of 2007–2009, economists are reconsidering the appropriate role of monetary policy towards equity bubbles. This paper contributes to these deliberations by estimating the response of the stock market to monetary policy tightening by using a Bayesian time‐varying VAR model. By introducing the cyclically adjusted price/earnings ratio, we propose a method that estimates its fundamental and bubble components. We find that asset prices will initially fall and eventually rise again but without the risk of feeding the bubble. Counterfactual policy experiments provide additional evidence that monetary policy can lean against equity and housing prices. (JEL E50, E52, E58)

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Author Posting © The Authors, 2020. This article is posted here by permission of The Authors for personal use, not for redistribution. The article was published in Economic Inquiry, Volume 58, Issue 4, October 2020. https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.12915

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Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International
Citation Information
Anastasios Evgenidis and A. (Tassos) G. Malliaris. "To Lean or Not to Lean Against an Asset Price Bubble? Empirical Evidence" Economic Inquiry Vol. 58 Iss. 4 (2020)
Available at: http://works.bepress.com/atassos-malliaris/60/