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Article
Value at risk, legislative framework, crises, and procyclicality: What goes wrong?
Review of Economic Analysis
  • Vasileiou Evangelos, University of the Aegean
  • Aristeidis Samitas, Zayed University
Document Type
Article
Publication Date
1-1-2020
Abstract

This study highlights some deficiencies of the stock markets’ risk legislation framework, and particularly the CESR (2010) guidelines. We show that the current legislative framework fails to offer incentives to financial management companies to invest in advanced models for more representative Value at Risk (VaR) estimations, and for this reason, in many cases conventional VaR models are applied. We use data from the DAX, CAC 40, FTSE, FTSEMIB and IBEX indices, and then we apply them to the widely accepted Delta Normal VaR model. The empirical findings show that the conventional VaR models not only fail to provide information for the upcoming financial crises, but also contribute to such phenomena as procyclicality and overreaction in the stock market. We suggest additional tests and we empirically show how these tests could reduce the procyclicality issue and promote a more sustainable investment environment. Even though this study is mainly focused on CESR (2010) guidelines, it could be useful for any similar legislative framework, such as the Basel Accords.

Publisher
Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis
Disciplines
Keywords
  • Financial regulation,
  • Procyclicality,
  • Value at Risk
Scopus ID

85085375195

Indexed in Scopus
Yes
Open Access
Yes
Open Access Type
Green: A manuscript of this publication is openly available in a repository
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3504544
Citation Information
Vasileiou Evangelos and Aristeidis Samitas. "Value at risk, legislative framework, crises, and procyclicality: What goes wrong?" Review of Economic Analysis Vol. 12 Iss. 3 (2020) p. 345 - 369
Available at: http://works.bepress.com/aristeidis-samitas/6/