Presentation
Projected Changes in Climatic Suitability for Douglas Fir and Spruce Forests in British Columbia.
American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2008
(2009)
Abstract
The impact of projected climate change on spruce and Douglas fir forests in British Columbia was assessed using bioclimatic envelope models. Present and future climatic suitability was modelled for Douglas fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii), Engelmann spruce (Picea engelmannii), hybrid spruce (Picea engelmannii xglauca), and white spruce (Picea glauca). Bioclimatic envelope models use historical climate data to define the climatic envelopes that control a species' spatial distribution. In this study, a correlative modeling technique based on principal component analysis was employed to determine climatic suitability at a resolution of 600 meters throughout British Columbia. The models were developed using elevation-adjusted interpolated records of the 1961-1990 climate normals. Future suitability was modeled using climate data from five different projections derived from four GCMs under three emissions scenarios. Predicted suitability maps were produced for 30-year time-slices centerd on 2020, 2050, and 2080. The results were compared across the province to quantify the variability between projections and to assess the range of predicted suitability distributions. As expected, all projections indicate a rapid shift in suitability for both spruce and Douglas fir to higher elevations and latitudes than their current range. However, significant differences exist between the projections with regard to the pace, extent and fine-scale details of these changes.
Keywords
- Impacts of global change,
- Land/atmosphere interactions,
- Land cover change,
- Regional climate change
Disciplines
Publication Date
2009
Citation Information
Aquila Flower, Trevor Q. Murdock and Katy Campbell. "Projected Changes in Climatic Suitability for Douglas Fir and Spruce Forests in British Columbia." American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2008 (2009) Available at: http://works.bepress.com/aquila-flower/17/