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Article
Technology Roadmap Through Fuzzy Cognitive Map-Based Scenarios: The Case of Wind Energy Sector of a Developing Country
Technology Analysis & Strategic Management
  • Muhammad Amer, Advanced Engineering Research Organization, Islamabad, Pakistan
  • Tugrul Unsal Daim, Portland State University
  • Antonie J. Jetter, Portland State University
Document Type
Citation
Publication Date
8-24-2015
Subjects
  • Technological Change,
  • Decision making,
  • Technology -- Management
Abstract

In this research, a national-level wind energy roadmap is developed through scenario planning. Multiple future scenarios are developed using the fuzzy cognitive maps (FCM) approach. This research has extended technology roadmapping (TRM) through FCM-based scenario analysis. Building scenarios with FCM is a new approach, and for the first time, to the best of our knowledge, FCM-based scenarios are developed for the wind energy sector of a developing country. Based on these multiple scenarios, a TRM has been developed. Scenario planning and TRM techniques are combined in this study. This research approach is applied to the wind energy sector of Pakistan as a research case. The TRM has four layers: strategic objectives, targets, barriers, and action items. Expert judgement is used to develop scenarios and TRMs.

DOI
10.1080/09537325.2015.1073250
Persistent Identifier
http://archives.pdx.edu/ds/psu/20753
Citation Information
Amer, M., Daim, T. U., & Jetter, A. (2015). Technology roadmap through fuzzy cognitive map-based scenarios: the case of wind energy sector of a developing country. Technology Analysis & Strategic Management, 28(2), 131–155.