Forecasting Innovation Pathways for New and Emerging Science & TechnologiesTechnological Forecasting & Social Change (2013)
AbstractNew & Emerging Science & Technologies (“NESTs”) promise tremendous innovation potential, but this is coupled with enormous uncertainties and often many unknowns. This paper offers a framework to analyze NESTs to help ascertain likely innovation pathways. We have devised a 10-step framework based on extensive Future-oriented Technology Analyses (“FTA”) experience, enriched by in-depth case analyses. In the paper, we describe our analytical activities in two case studies. The nanobiosensors experience is contrasted with that of deep brain stimulation in relative quantitative and qualitative emphases. We close the paper by reflecting on this systematic FTA framework for emerging science and technologies, for its intended goal, that is to support decision making.
- New & Emerging Science & Technologies,
- Future-oriented Technology Analyses,
- technology forecasting,
- innovation pathways,
Citation Informationdouglas kr robinson, lu huang, ying guo and alan l porter. "Forecasting Innovation Pathways for New and Emerging Science & Technologies" Technological Forecasting & Social Change Vol. 80 Iss. 2 (2013)
Available at: http://works.bepress.com/alan_porter/17/