Unpublished Paper
What's in a Denial? Bayesian Analysis Shows that Kavanaugh Lied about Denials under Oath and Trump was Foolish to Believe MBS
(2018)
Abstract
Trump has been putting a lot of stock in denials: MBS's, Putin's, and Kavanaugh's. We argue, based on Bayes, this is foolish. Kavanaugh in turn put stock in a different kind of denial, claiming that people who Ford said were at a gathering long ago denied being there; but they actually said they didn't recall. Is this nit-picking or did Kavanaugh lie under oath? Bayesian analysis shows the two possible statements are very different suggesting that Kavanaugh lied, assuming that we credit him with understanding a little about how to interpret evidence.
Disciplines
Publication Date
2018
Citation Information
Aaron Edlin. "What's in a Denial? Bayesian Analysis Shows that Kavanaugh Lied about Denials under Oath and Trump was Foolish to Believe MBS" (2018) Available at: http://works.bepress.com/aaron_edlin/117/