An Analysis of Regime Shifts in the Turkish Economy

HAKAN YILMAZKUDAY, VANDERBILT UNIVERSITY
KORAY AKAY, ISTANBUL BILGI UNIVERSITY

Abstract

We use a time-varying dynamic factor model with regime switching to construct and estimate the leading indicators of the currency crises in Turkey. After that, we analyze the business cycles of the Turkish economy, by using a three-state univariate Markov-switching model. Both models capture the observed dynamics of the Turkish economy over the period 1987-2002.