This paper describes an approach to study ductile/cleavage transition in ferritic steels using the methodology of a cell model for ductile tearing incorporating weakest link statistics. The model takes into account the constraint effects and puts no restriction on the extent of plastic deformation or amount of ductile tearing preceding cleavage failure. The parameters associated with the statistical model are calibrated using experimental cleavage fracture toughness data, and the effect of threshold stress on predicted cleavage fracture probability is investigated. The issue of two approaches to compute Weibull stress, the ‘history approach’ and the ‘current approach’, is also addressed. The numerical approach is finally applied to surface-cracked thick plates subject to different histories of bending and tension, and a new parameter, y, is introduced to predict the location of cleavage initiation.