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Article
North American extreme precipitation events and related large-scale meteorological patterns: a review of statistical methods, dynamics, modeling, and trends
Climate Dynamics
  • Mathew Barlow, University of Massachusetts at Lowell
  • William J. Gutowski, Jr., Iowa State University
  • John R. Gyakum, McGill University
  • Richard W. Katz, National Center for Atmospheric Research
  • Young‑Kwon Lim, National Aeronautics and Space Administration
  • Russ S. Schumacher, Colorado State University - Fort Collins
  • Michael F. Wehner, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
  • Laurie Agel, University of Massachusetts at Lowell
  • Michael Bosilovich, National Aeronautics and Space Administration
  • Allison Collow, National Aeronautics and Space Administration
  • Alexander Gershunov, University of California - San Diego
  • Richard Grotjahn, University of California, Davis
  • Ruby Leung, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
  • Shawn Milrad, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University
  • Seung‑Ki Min, Pohang University of Science and Technology
Document Type
Article
Publication Version
Published Version
Publication Date
1-1-2019
DOI
10.1007/s00382-019-04958-z
Abstract

This paper surveys the current state of knowledge regarding large-scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs) associated with short-duration (less than 1 week) extreme precipitation events over North America. In contrast to teleconnections, which are typically defined based on the characteristic spatial variations of a meteorological field or on the remote circulation response to a known forcing, LSMPs are defined relative to the occurrence of a specific phenomenon—here, extreme precipitation—and with an emphasis on the synoptic scales that have a primary influence in individual events, have medium-range weather predictability, and are well-resolved in both weather and climate models. For the LSMP relationship with extreme precipitation, we consider the previous literature with respect to definitions and data, dynamical mechanisms, model representation, and climate change trends. There is considerable uncertainty in identifying extremes based on existing observational precipitation data and some limitations in analyzing the associated LSMPs in reanalysis data. Many different definitions of “extreme” are in use, making it difficult to directly compare different studies. Dynamically, several types of meteorological systems—extratropical cyclones, tropical cyclones, mesoscale convective systems, and mesohighs—and several mechanisms—fronts, atmospheric rivers, and orographic ascent—have been shown to be important aspects of extreme precipitation LSMPs. The extreme precipitation is often realized through mesoscale processes organized, enhanced, or triggered by the LSMP. Understanding of model representation, trends, and projections for LSMPs is at an early stage, although some promising analysis techniques have been identified and the LSMP perspective is useful for evaluating the model dynamics associated with extremes.

Comments

This article is published as Barlow, Mathew, William J. Gutowski, John R. Gyakum, Richard W. Katz, Young-Kwon Lim, Russ S. Schumacher, Michael F. Wehner et al. "North American extreme precipitation events and related large-scale meteorological patterns: a review of statistical methods, dynamics, modeling, and trends." Climate Dynamics (2019). doi: 10.1007/s00382-019-04958-z.

Rights
Works produced by employees of the U.S. Government as part of their official duties are not copyrighted within the U.S. The content of this document is not copyrighted.
Language
en
File Format
application/pdf
Citation Information
Mathew Barlow, William J. Gutowski, John R. Gyakum, Richard W. Katz, et al.. "North American extreme precipitation events and related large-scale meteorological patterns: a review of statistical methods, dynamics, modeling, and trends" Climate Dynamics (2019)
Available at: http://works.bepress.com/william-gutowski/114/