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Article
The Case For Thoroughly Testing Complex System Dynamic Models
23rd International Conference of the System Dynamics Society (2005)
Abstract
In order to determine whether model testing is as useful as suggested by modeling experts, the full battery of model tests recommended by Forrester, Senge, Sterman, and others was applied retrospectively to a complex previously-published system dynamics model. The time required to carry out each type of test was captured, and the benefits that resulted from applying each test was determined subjectively. The resulting benefit to cost ratios are reported. These ratios suggest that rather than focusing primarily on sensitivity testing, modelers should consider other types of model tests such as extreme condition tests and family member tests. The study also finds that all of the different kinds of tests were either moderately useful or very useful--fully supporting the recommendations of the experts.
Keywords
  • Model testing,
  • Model validation,
  • Model verification,
  • Sensitivity analysis
Publication Date
July, 2005
Publisher Statement
Presented at the 2005 International System Dynamics Conference in Boston.

Citation Information
"The Case For Thoroughly Testing Complex System Dynamic Models" 23rd International Conference of the System Dynamics Society (2005)
Available at: http://works.bepress.com/wayne_wakeland/16/