
To claim the existence of an association in modern genome-wide association studies (GWAS), a nominal P-value has to exceed a stringent Bonferroni-adjusted significance level. Despite strictness of the correction, a significant P-value does not indicate high probability that the claimed association is genuine. A simple Bayesian solution -- the False Positive Report Probability (FPRP) -- was previously proposed to convert the observed P-value to the corresponding probability of no true association. Although the FPRP solution is highly popular, it does not reflect probability that a particular finding is false. Here, we offer a simple POFIG method -- a Probability that a Finding is Genuine. POFIG enables one effectively to convert a P-value to the probability that a particular association with the trait is genuine. The validity of POFIG is supported by the results of a simulation study and the potential utility of our approach is discussed with reference to future GWAS discoveries.
- P-values,
- probability,
- genetic association studies
Available at: http://works.bepress.com/vsevolozhskaya/14/