Within the last decade, mixed martial arts has become one of the most popular sports worldwide. The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is the largest and most successful organization within the industry. In the USA, however, the sport is not sanctioned in all states because some politicians view the sport as too violent. The sport consists of many fighting forms and, unlike boxing, winning a decision requires judging in multiple facets including wrestling, boxing, kickboxing, and jiu-jitsu. In this study, we estimate the likelihood of winning a decision in the UFC. Using data on individual fights, we estimate the probability of winning based on fighter characteristics. We emphasize power strikes as they relate to aggression to determine the likelihood of winning.

Our results indicate that knockdowns and damage inflicted are all statistically significant determinants of winning a fight and have the largest marginal effect of influencing judges' decisions.