Articles
Can the Fed Predict the State of the Economy? (with H. O. Stekler and Fred Joutz), Economics Letters (2010)
We show that systematic forecast errors reveal that the Fed is surprised” by real and...
Directional Forecasts of GDP and Inflation: A Joint Evaluation with an Application to Federal Reserve Predictions (with H.O. Stekler and Lindsay Kitzinger), Applied Economics (2010)
Many studies have undertaken separate analyses of the Fed’s forecasts of real GDP growth and...
Output Fluctuations in the G-7: An Unobserved Components Approach (with Sinchan Mitra), Macroeconomic Dynamics (2010)
This paper proposes a multivariate unobserved components model to simultaneously decompose the real GDP for...
Asymmetry in the Business Cycle: Friedman's Plucking Model with Correlated Innovations, Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics (2009)
This paper develops an unobserved components model for U.S. real GDP that allows for both...
Forecast Evaluation of AveAve Forecasts in the Global VAR Context (with H. O. Stekler), International Journal of Forecasting (2009)
The Relationships between Permanent and Transitory Movements in U.S. Output and the Unemployment Rate, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking (2008)
This paper estimates the permanent and transitory movements in U.S. output and the unemployment rate...
Searching For Better Prospects: Endogenizing Falling Job Tenure and Private Pension Coverage (with Leora Friedberg and Michael T. Owyang), The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy (2007)
Recent declines in job tenure have coincided with a shift away from traditional defined benefit...
The Differential Approach to Superlative Index Number Theory (with William A. Barnett and Ki-Hong Choi), Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics (2002)
Diewert’s (1976) “superlative” index numbers, defined to be exact for second order aggregator functions, unify...
Unpublished Papers
Permanent and Transitory Macroeconomic Relationships between the US and China (with Yueqing Jia) (2009)
The relationships between the economic fluctuations of the US and China, the largest developed and...
How Well Does “Core” CPI Capture Permanent Price Changes? (with Michael D. Bradley and Dennis W. Jansen) (2009)
We decompose core CPI and the food and energy CPI measures into permanent and transitory...