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Can the Fed Predict the State of the Economy?

Tara M. Sinclair, George Washington University
H. O. Stekler, George Washington University
Fred Joutz, George Washington University

Abstract

We show that systematic forecast errors reveal that the Fed is surprised” by real and inflationary cycles. The Fed knows the state of the economy for the current quarter, but cannot redict it one-quarter ahead.

Suggested Citation

Tara M. Sinclair, H. O. Stekler, and Fred Joutz. "Can the Fed Predict the State of the Economy?" Economics Letters 108.1 (2010): 28-32.

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