Directional Forecasts of GDP and Inflation: A Joint Evaluation with an Application to Federal Reserve Predictions

Tara M. Sinclair, George Washington University
H.O. Stekler, George Washington University
Lindsay Kitzinger, Harvard Law School

Abstract

Many studies have undertaken separate analyses of the Fed’s forecasts of real GDP growth and inflation. This paper presents a method for jointly evaluating the direction of change predictions of these variables. We conclude that that some of the inflation forecasts, examined separately, were not valuable. However, the joint pattern of GDP and inflation projections was generally in accord with the economy’s movements.