Welcome to my Selected Works site. For more information, please also visit my home page at George Washington University: http://home.gwu.edu/~tsinc
Articles
Asymmetry in the Business Cycle: Friedman's Plucking Model with Correlated Innovations, Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics (2009)
This paper develops an unobserved components model for U.S. real GDP that allows for both...
Forecast Evaluation of AveAve Forecasts in the Global VAR Context (with H. O. Stekler), International Journal of Forecasting (2009)
The Relationships between Permanent and Transitory Movements in U.S. Output and the Unemployment Rate, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking (2008)
This paper estimates the permanent and transitory movements in U.S. output and the unemployment rate...
Searching For Better Prospects: Endogenizing Falling Job Tenure and Private Pension Coverage (with Leora Friedberg and Michael T. Owyang), The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy (2007)
Recent declines in job tenure have coincided with a shift away from traditional defined benefit...
Directional Forecasts of GDP and Inflation: A Joint Evaluation with an Application to Federal Reserve Predictions (with H.O. Stekler and Lindsay Kitzinger), Applied Economics (2006)
Many studies have undertaken separate analyses of the Fed’s forecasts of real GDP growth and...
Unpublished Papers
Permanent and Transitory Macroeconomic Relationships between the US and China (with Yueqing Jia) (2009)
The relationships between the economic fluctuations of the US and China, the largest developed and...
How Well Does “Core” CPI Capture Permanent Price Changes? (with Michael D. Bradley and Dennis W. Jansen) (2009)
We decompose core CPI and the food and energy CPI measures into permanent and transitory...
Can the Fed Predict the State of the Economy? (with H. O. Stekler and Fred Joutz) (2009)
Recent research has documented that the Federal Reserve produces systematic errors in forecasting inflation, real...
Output Fluctuations in the G-7: An Unobserved Components Approach (with Sinchan Mitra) (2008)
This paper contributes to the debate about the relative importance of permanent versus transitory disturbances...
Bootstrap Tests of Stationarity (with James Morley) (2008)
We compare the finite-sample performance of different stationarity tests. Monte Carlo analysis reveals that tests...