Welcome to my Selected Works site. For more information, please also visit my home
page at George Washington University: http://home.gwu.edu/~tsinc 



Can the Fed Predict the State of the Economy? (with H. O. Stekler and Fred Joutz), Economics Letters (2010)

We show that systematic forecast errors reveal that the Fed is surprised” by real and...



Directional Forecasts of GDP and Inflation: A Joint Evaluation with an Application to Federal Reserve Predictions (with H.O. Stekler and Lindsay Kitzinger), Applied Economics (2010)

Many studies have undertaken separate analyses of the Fed’s forecasts of real GDP growth and...



Output Fluctuations in the G-7: An Unobserved Components Approach (with Sinchan Mitra), Macroeconomic Dynamics (2010)

This paper proposes a multivariate unobserved components model to simultaneously decompose the real GDP for...


Asymmetry in the Business Cycle: Friedman's Plucking Model with Correlated Innovations, Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics (2009)

This paper develops an unobserved components model for U.S. real GDP that allows for both...



Forecast Evaluation of AveAve Forecasts in the Global VAR Context (with H. O. Stekler), International Journal of Forecasting (2009)

Unpublished Papers


Permanent and Transitory Macroeconomic Relationships between the US and China (with Yueqing Jia) (2009)

The relationships between the economic fluctuations of the US and China, the largest developed and...