Sumru G. Altug is a Professor of Economics at Koç University in Istanbul, Turkey and
a Research Fellow at the Centre for Economic Policy Research in London, UK. She has
published papers in the areas of business cycles, intertemporal models of consumption and
labor supply, investment, productivity and growth, and banking and financial market


Identifying Leading Indicators of Real Activity and Inflation for Turkey, 1988-2010: A Pseudo Out-of-Sample Forecasting Approach (with ERHAN ULUCEVIZ), Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, forthcoming (2013)

This paper develops a set of leading indicators for industrial production growth and changes in...


Business Cycles in Developed and Emerging Economies: Evidence from a Univariate Markov Switching Approach (with Melike Bildirici), Emerging Markets Finance and Trade (2012)

This paper characterizes business cycle phenomena in a sample of 27 developed and emerging economies...



Cyclical Dynamics of Industrial Production and Employment: Markov Chain-based Estimates and Tests (with Baris Tan and Gozde Gencer), Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control (2012)

The purpose of this paper is to understand differences in cyclical phenomena across a broad...


Institutions and Business Cycles (with Bilin Neyapti and Mustafa Emin), International Finance (2012)

This paper investigates the relationship between the main features of business cycles and the institutional...



The Investment Tax Credit and Irreversible Investment (with FANNY S. DEMERS and MICHEL DEMERS), Journal of Macroeconomıcs (2009)

We examine the impact of random changes in investment tax credit (ITC) policy on the...




Asset Pricing for Dynamic Economies (with PAMELA LABADIE) (2008)

Contributions to Books

Productivity and Growth for Turkey: 1923-2000 (with ALPAY FILIZTEKIN), The Turkish Economy: The Real Economy, Corporate Governance and Reform (2006)

Investment Dynamics (with FANNY S. DEMERS and MICHEL DEMERS), Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis: Theory and Policy in General Equilibrium (2003)

This chapter surveys investment theory beginning with Hall and Jorgenson's pioneering work. It presents the...


Cost Uncertainty, Taxation and Irreversible Investment (with FANNY S. DEMERS and MICHEL DEMERS), Current Trends in Economics: Theory and Applications (1999)

We examine the impact of learning about the unknown costs of investment on irreversible investment...


Unpublished Papers

Search Frictions, Financial Frictions, and Labor Market Fluctuations in Emerging Economies (with Serdar Kabaca and Meltem Poyraz), KU-TUSIAD Eoconomic Research Forum WP 1136 (2011)

This paper examines the role of the extensive and intensive margins of work in the...