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Counter Conflict through Mutuality: Lessons from Bayesian Updating

Srijit Mishra, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research

Abstract

Using Bayesian updating to deterministic priors, persistence of fundamentalist belief can be explained. Under such belief system if conditional evidence is diametrically opposite and also deterministic then a process of change can set in. In situations of conflict this could be explored through dialogue that calls for mutual respect and allows reasonable pluralism. In situations where interaction is the basis, self-defeating scenarios can be avoided by giving space to others. Thus, in the political sphere one has to be accommodative. Showing concern towards others will also make things easier for deterring conflicts.