The Long-Run Determinants of Fertility: One Century of Demographic Change 1900-1999

Dierk Herzer
Holger Strulik
Sebastian Vollmer

Abstract

We examine the long-run relationship between fertility, mortality, and in- come using panel cointegration techniques and the available data for the last century. Our main result is that mortality changes and growth of income per capita account for a major part of the fertility change characterizing the demographic transition. The fertility reduction triggered by falling mortality, however, is not enough to overcom- pensate the positive effect of falling mortality on population growth. This means that growth of income per capita is essential to explain the observed secular decline of population growth. These results are robust against alternative estimation methods, potential outliers, sample selection, different measures of mortality, and the sample period. In addition, our causality tests suggest that fertility changes are both cause and consequence of economic development.