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Article
Estimation of HIV Incidence Using Multiple Biomakers
American Journal of Epidemiology (2013)
  • Ron Brookmeyer, University of California, Los Angeles
  • Jacob Konikoff, University of California - Los Angeles
  • Oliver Laeyendecker
  • Susan H Eshleman, Johns Hopkins University
Abstract

The incidence of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is the rate at which new HIV infections occur in populations. The development of accurate, practical, and cost-effective approaches to estimation of HIV incidence is a priority among researchers in HIV surveillance because of limitations with existing methods. In this paper, we develop methods for estimating HIV incidence rates using multiple biomarkers in biological samples collected from a cross-sectional survey. An advantage of the method is that it does not require longitudinal follow-up of individuals. We use assays for BED, avidity, viral load, and CD4 cell count data from clade B samples collected in several US epidemiologic cohorts between 1987 and 2010. Considering issues of accuracy, cost, and implementation, we identify optimal multiassay algorithms for estimating incidence. We find that the multiple-biomarker approach to cross-sectional HIV incidence estimation corrects the significant deficiencies of currently available approaches and is a potentially powerful and practical tool for HIV surveillance.

Keywords
  • AIDS,
  • algorithms,
  • cross-sectional studies,
  • HIV incidence,
  • models,
  • statistics
Publication Date
January 9, 2013
Citation Information
Ron Brookmeyer, Jacob Konikoff, Oliver Laeyendecker and Susan H Eshleman. "Estimation of HIV Incidence Using Multiple Biomakers" American Journal of Epidemiology Vol. 177 Iss. 3 (2013)
Available at: http://works.bepress.com/rbrookmeyer/35/