Software to Forecast the Global Burden of Alzheimer's Disease
Software was developed to forecast the global burden of Alzheimer’s disease and evaluate the potential impact of interventions that delay disease onset and progression. The output includes 50 year projections of Alzheimer's disease prevalence by stage of disease and region of the world. The methods are based on a stochastic multi-state model The software incorporates U.N. worldwide population forecasts and data from epidemiological studies on risks of Alzheimer’s disease. The user can also supply their own population projections, and modify input parameters for the model including the disease incidence rates, effects of interventions on disease onset and progression, and stages of disease. The software is sufficiently flexible that it can also be applied to forecasting other diseases in elderly populations.
Ron Brookmeyer, Elizabeth Johnson, Kathryn Ziegler-Graham, and H. Michael Arrighi. 2007. "Computer Software to Forecast the Global Burden of Alzheimer's Disease" Available at www.biostat.jhsph.edu/project/globalAD/index.htm