Al Qaeda and Jihadist Terrorism in the light of contest theory A theoretical note and empirical evidence over the period 2002-2007.
Abstract
Abstract: This paper shows that the number of victims of Al Qaeda-style terrorist attacks is increasing in the number of victims of previous attacks in the same country. This determines an upward trend in terrorist brutality. This evidence is interpreted in the light of contest theory as the outcome of competition between Jihadist groups. To maximize the probability of winning some 'prize' provided by Al Qaeda, terrorist groups maximize their efforts with the result of escalating brutality. In the presence of costless information, each group observes the results of other groups’ attacks. Therefore, each group tries to make attacks more destructive than previous ones. The results also show that preconditions for terrorist activity are founded on grievances associated with poor socio-economic conditions.