Bootstrap Methods for Developing Predictive Models in Cardiovascular Research

Peter C. Austin, Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences

Abstract

Researchers frequently use automated model selection methods such as backwards elimination to identify variables that are independent predictors of an outcome under consideration. We propose using bootstrap resampling in conjunction with automated variable selection methods to develop parsimonious prediction models. Using data on patients admitted to hospital with a heart attack, we demonstrate that selecting those variables that were identified as independent predictors of mortality in at least 60% of the bootstrap samples resulted in a parsimonious model with excellent predictive ability.