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Article
A Note On Forecasting With Econometric Models
Northeastern Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics (1984)
  • P Geoffrey Allen, University of Massachusetts - Amherst
Abstract

Forecasts made by econometricians are typically conditioned on actual values of explanatory variables, even when at the time of the forecast, such variables might not be available. As a first step, one might test the adequacy of econometric specification by comparing conditional post sample forecasts with those of a univariate ARIMA model. Second, when explanatory variables must themselves be forecast, those for which this can be done only badly, should be omitted from the final model. A better forecast will result. An example of screening out badly forecasted explanatory variables is presented.

Disciplines
Publication Date
October, 1984
Citation Information
P Geoffrey Allen. "A Note On Forecasting With Econometric Models" Northeastern Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics Vol. 13 Iss. 2 (1984)
Available at: http://works.bepress.com/p_allen/6/