An Econometric Model Of The Market For Fresh New England Groundfish With Emphasis On The Role Of Canadian Imports

P Geoffrey Allen, University of Massachusetts - Amherst

Abstract

Most econometric studies of the groundfish sector have suggested that either imports are not sensitive to U.S. prices, or that domestic prices are not much affected by imports, or both. Using a six equation model of the domestic fresh groundfish market we obtained contrasting results. For example, a 5.82 percent tariff of the type proposed by the U.S. International Trade Commission in 1986 would, if it applied to both whole fish and fillets, lower imports of fresh fish 3.7 percent and raise domestic ex-vessel prices 2.6 percent in the long run. The main reasons for the different results appear to be our inclusion of exchange rate effects and a more accurate measure of total fresh imports.