Temporal Stability and Geographic Variation in Cumulative Case Fatality Rates and Average Doubling Times of SARS Epidemics

Alison P. Galvani, Department of Molecular and Cell Biology, University of California, Berkeley
Xiudong Lei, Division of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley
Nicholas P. Jewell, Division of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley

Abstract

We analyze temporal stability and geographic trends in cumulative case fatality rates and average doubling times of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). In part, we account for correlations between case fatality rates and doubling times through differences in control measures. We discuss factors that may alter future estimates of case fatality rates. We also discuss reasons for heterogeneity in doubling times among countries and the implications for the control of SARS in different countries and parameterization of epidemic models.