Copyright (c) 2010 All rights reserved. http://works.bepress.com/neophytos_loizides Recent documents in Neophytos Loizides en-us Tue, 16 Nov 2010 04:15:08 PST 3600 http://works.bepress.com/neophytos_loizides/22 http://works.bepress.com/neophytos_loizides/22 Fri, 15 Oct 2010 02:27:09 PDT Peace processes could be more effective and durable when boosted by widespread expressions of public support. While the relevance of this claim has been examined with respect to democratic elections following the transition to peace, there has been little systematic attempt to study alternative forms of popular support, specifically peace referendums. Moreover, despite increasing global trends towards direct democracy, international organizations and governments often design peace referendums without adequately considering comparative cases and existing knowledge. Referendums are decisive steps in peace processes and often have long-term effects in consolidating or hindering peace. Drawing from a new dataset, the article demonstrates the influence of institutional design. It highlights some key dilemmas in designing referendums or alternative ratification processes and discusses the merits and weaknesses of different designs. Finally, it notes the advantages of seeking an early mandate in contested peace processes and argues that through informal mandate referendums, leaders could better balance democratic accountability with credibility in negotiations. Neophytos Loizides Selected Conference Papers http://works.bepress.com/neophytos_loizides/21 http://works.bepress.com/neophytos_loizides/21 Fri, 15 Oct 2010 02:16:18 PDT The article builds on Putnam’s two-level game theory model to suggest potential solutions to the problem of failed domestic ratification of peace agreements. Departing from the dichotomy of executive/legislative decision-making, the article focuses on popular referendums probing their increasing role in peace processes. It argues that early mandate referendums which focus initially on domestic constituencies enable leaders to better finalize a peace settlement subsequently. Mandate referendums present three important advantages: incorporating early feedback in the negotiations and preparing the public for a settlement; reducing uncertainty across the board while trading credible commitments for favourable concessions; and finally safeguarding the peace process from subsequent and often unavoidable reversals in public opinion. The study of mandate referendums has important implications for research on democratization and international conflict, since it suggests mechanisms through which leaders can overcome failed ratification episodes of highly desirable and necessary treaties including not only peace settlements but also international agreements on global warming and third world poverty. Neophytos Loizides Selected Conference Papers http://works.bepress.com/neophytos_loizides/20 http://works.bepress.com/neophytos_loizides/20 Sun, 27 Jun 2010 08:21:45 PDT This article examines the causation and extent of interstate crisis escalation among two conflictual dyads, namely, Greece-Turkey and India-Pakistan. It draws from the International Crisis Behavior dataset to present a new sub-dataset of 12 interstate crises involving the two dyads in the period between 1987 and 2002. While crisis behavior in Greece-Turkey has frequently been analyzed within the context of two major regional organizations (NATO and the EU), Indian-Pakistani crises have been studied within the perspective of nuclear proliferation. To examine the linkage between these features and interstate crises, the article operationalizes the security dilemma and the diversionary theory of war through a probabilistic model. Using Ragin’s (2000) comparative qualitative analysis (QCA), it demonstrates that both the security dilemma and diversionary theory explain crisis escalation, although the latter covers more cases with a smaller margin of error. Moreover, the article demonstrates that Greek-Turkish crises have generally escalated to relatively low levels of conflict (threat of war or show of force) while Indian-Pakistani crises have spiraled to higher levels of confrontation (use of force). In both dyads, nuclear weapons and regional organizations have shaped the boundaries of possible escalatory action. The EU and NATO have contributed to mitigating crisis escalation and the use of force between the Aegean neighbors while unintentionally encouraging low intensity confrontations; meanwhile, in South Asia, nuclear weapons in combination with fragile domestic regimes have exacerbated crises, particularly in the form of state-sponsored unconventional warfare. Akisato Suzuki Articles http://works.bepress.com/neophytos_loizides/19 http://works.bepress.com/neophytos_loizides/19 Sun, 27 Jun 2010 05:22:46 PDT This article examines how the right of return is negotiated and implemented in post-conflict societies. It focuses on cases of voluntary yet ‘difficult’ return and identifies the conditions under which victims of ethnic cleansing choose to return to their homes despite opposition from new occupants and local authorities. The article provides a theoretical framework for the study of return looking at security provisions, incentives, contact and ideology. Drawing on the experiences of Bosnian (Drvar) and Cypriot (Maronite) returnees, it emphasizes the role of social capital and demonstrates how community effort resolves coordination and commitment problems and facilitates voluntary peaceful return. Djordje Stefanovic Articles http://works.bepress.com/neophytos_loizides/18 http://works.bepress.com/neophytos_loizides/18 Wed, 16 Dec 2009 05:27:58 PST Much of the recent political debate in both sides of the island has centered on a proposal by the Greek Cypriot negotiating team for weighted-voting between Greek and Turkish Cypriots in the island. Specifically, this proposal will allow all Cypriots a double vote, one in their ethnic community and another (with a standardized weight of approximately 20%) in the other community. In the election of President, every person will have one vote therefore Turkish Cypriots will be an electoral minority of around 20%. In a second election, Turkish Cypriots will vote for the Vice-President. Greek Cypriots will participate but with a weighted vote of about 20% (same percentage as Turkish Cypriots in the electoral rolls). Thus, the Greek Cypriot vote will be weighted and the community will become an electoral minority of the Turkish Cypriots. The Greek Cypriot President will be the Head of government for 2/3 of the time; the Turkish Cypriot will rotate as President for 1/3 of the time. In cases of constitutional deadlock, the acting President will have the winning vote. Following this proposal, it has been argued that weighted voting is a Cypriot innovation with no international precedents. The memo questions this view by demonstrating that weighted voting systems are neither new nor particularly exceptional. About 40 percent of the population of the planet currently lives in democratic or democratizing federations. By their own nature, federal systems try to balance individual rights with those of the governing federal units, drawing on weighted voting systems to do so. The memo summarizes examples of federations departing from the “one person one vote” principle by using some form of weighted voting comparable to the one recently proposed by the Greek Cypriot negotiating team. Neophytos Loizides Memos http://works.bepress.com/neophytos_loizides/17 http://works.bepress.com/neophytos_loizides/17 Thu, 23 Jul 2009 06:40:57 PDT The article aims to resolve tensions between legal, humanitarian and pragmatic considerations in the evaluation of settler questions in contested territories, looking primarily at populations relocated from Turkey to Cyprus after 1974. The presence of Turkish settlers complicates mediations for a federal settlement in the island and constitutes a violation of the Fourth Geneva Convention of 1949. However, in sociological terms, the Turkish settlers meet the profile of an immigrant population more interested in welfare and daily survival issues than in politics. In contrast to other contemporary or historical cases of settler colonialism, what is particularly puzzling in Cyprus is the absence of mobilization and politicization among settlers despite perceived discrimination and fears of relocation following a negotiated peace agreement. Moreover, the increasing presence of settlers in the island has triggered domestic insecurities and native discourses emphasizing Cypriot identities and interests. However, for the most part, both Greek and Turkish Cypriot leaderships have attempted in various ways to accommodate the settler question in the negotiations. Aiming to link the actors’ perceptions with the need for a negotiated federal settlement, the article examines a variety of possible arrangements and their potential consequences for settlers and the two communities in Cyprus. Neophytos Loizides Selected Conference Papers http://works.bepress.com/neophytos_loizides/16 http://works.bepress.com/neophytos_loizides/16 Wed, 27 May 2009 14:17:07 PDT This article evaluates theories of nationalism by examining the formation of Kurdish nationalism in Turkey. It deals particularly with the various manifestations of contemporary Kurdish minority question and provides an account for the late development of Kurdish nationalism in Turkey. It situates the Kurdish experience within the broader experience of the post-Ottoman world and analyzes the awakening of Kurdish national identity among broader segments of the population. It provides an alternative to Ernest Gellner’s functionalist account of nationalism and industrialization by stressing the link between state policies and minority nationalism. It considers the political, social and other implications of state repression as well as the opportunities created in the diaspora or through external intervention. It argues that state policies in Turkey did not prevent and even contributed to the rise of Kurdish minority nationalism. Finally, the article raises two interrelated questions: what types of nationalism have Kurds developed under conditions of limited expression and what options for conflict resolution are present particularly in light of Turkey’s democratization and EU accession process. Keywords: Turkey, Kurds, nationalism, minority rights, EU, Ernest Gellner Neophytos Loizides Articles http://works.bepress.com/neophytos_loizides/15 http://works.bepress.com/neophytos_loizides/15 Wed, 22 Apr 2009 06:57:19 PDT The article examines why issues of mainly symbolic significance often overshadow problems of potentially higher security risk for a country. To answer this question, it looks at Greek reactions to the use of the name “Macedonia” by the neighboring republic since the dissolution of the former Yugoslavia in the early 1990s. It utilizes debates from the Hellenic Parliament as the main source of empirical evidence to illustrate how the “name issue” became a major priority in Greek politics, sidelining arguably more threatening and urgent disputes with Albania and Turkey. The analysis demonstrates on Turkish and Albanian issues a sizeable ‘dovish’ camp championing ideas of reconciliation and compromise. On the contrary, “hawks” succeeded in monopolizing framing and fostering an early nationalist consensus on the Macedonian issue. As the crisis unfolded, elite consensus on the rightness and efficacy of nationalism prevented adaptation to new conditions and reassessment of contrary information. Symbolic politics redefined the meaning of security and the country’s priorities, eventually leading to elite entrapment when compromise was desirable and necessary. Neophytos Loizides Selected Conference Papers http://works.bepress.com/neophytos_loizides/14 http://works.bepress.com/neophytos_loizides/14 Wed, 15 Apr 2009 10:38:23 PDT The fate of missing persons is a central issue in post-conflict societies facing truth recovery and human rights dilemmas. Despite widespread public sympathy towards relatives, societies emerging from conflict often defer the recovery of missing for decades. More paradoxically, in post-1974 Cyprus, the official authorities delayed unilateral exhumations of victims buried within cemeteries in their own jurisdiction. Analysis of official post-1974 discourse reveals a Greek-Cypriot consensus to emphasise the issue as one of Turkish aggression, thus downplaying in-group responsibilities and the legacy of intra-communal violence. We compare the experience of Cyprus with other post-conflict societies such as Spain, Northern Ireland, and Mozambique and explore the linkages between institutions and beliefs about transitional justice. We argue that elite consensus initiates and facilitates the transition to democracy but often leads to the institutionalization of groups opposing truth recovery even for in-group members. Iosif Kovras Articles http://works.bepress.com/neophytos_loizides/13 http://works.bepress.com/neophytos_loizides/13 Thu, 26 Mar 2009 12:02:48 PDT Following the 1994 genocide, several justice initiatives were implemented in Rwanda, including a tribunal established by the United Nations, Rwanda’s national court system and Gacaca, a ‘traditional’ community-run conflict resolution mechanism adapted to prosecute genocide perpetrators. Since their inception in 2001, the Gacaca courts have been praised for their efficiency and for widening participation but criticized for lack of due process, trained personnel and attention to atrocities committed by the Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF). To evaluate these criticisms, we survey 227 Rwandans and analyze their attitudes towards Gacaca in relation to demographic characteristics such as education, residence and loss of relatives during the genocide. Amaka Megwalu Articles http://works.bepress.com/neophytos_loizides/12 http://works.bepress.com/neophytos_loizides/12 Mon, 23 Mar 2009 16:30:28 PDT Negotiating the right of return is a central issue in post-conflict societies aiming to resolve tensions between human rights issues and security concerns. Peace proposals often fail to carefully balance these tensions or to identify incentives and linkages that enable refugee return. To address this gap, the article puts forward an alternative arrangement in negotiating refugee rights currently being considered in the bilateral negotiations in Cyprus. Previous peace plans for the reunification of the island emphasized security and stipulated a maximum number of Greek Cypriot refugees eligible to return under future Turkish Cypriot administration. The authors’ alternative suggests a minimum threshold of Greek Cypriots refugees plus self-adjustable incentives for the Turkish Cypriot community to accept the rest. The article reviews different options including linking actual numbers of returnees with naturalizations for Turkish settlers or immigrants, Turkey’s EU-accession, and territorial re-adjustments across the federal border. In this proposed formula, the Greek Cypriot side would reserve concessions until refugee return takes place while the Turkish Cypriot community would be ‘demographically secure’ under all scenarios by means of re-adjustable naturalization and immigration quotas. Drawing parallels with comparable cases, the article emphasizes the importance of making reciprocity and linkages explicit in post-conflict societies. Neophytos Loizides Articles http://works.bepress.com/neophytos_loizides/11 http://works.bepress.com/neophytos_loizides/11 Mon, 22 Sep 2008 11:16:13 PDT Relating nationalism to other ideologies or cultural values is one of the most enigmatic scholarly activities. The enigma lies in the kaleidoscopic nature of nationalism and the ease with which it adapts or relates to philosophically opposed ideologies (Hutchinson & Smith, 1994, 3). For example, nationalism often assumes ties to liberalism, even though it presupposes a strong commitment to the national community that transcends individualism. It accommodates conservatism fairly well despite nationalism’s modernizing mission, and it has often been paired with communism, despite the latter’s internationalist rhetoric. More surprisingly, nationalism and religion often go hand in hand, despite their deep philosophical inconsistencies. Nationalism is inherently local, philosophically poor, and limited and it lacks the belief in afterlife salvation and creative intelligence as source of meaning behind the universe (Anderson, 1983; Greenfeld, 1996b). Yet it frequently relates to religions such as Christianity and Islam which are universal in their membership and message of salvation. The article examines the latter relationship, namely that of nationalism and religion, through evidence from Southeast Europe in the past three centuries. It identifies religious and linguistic cleavages as alternative sources of identity construction and points to the extent to which the interplay of the two can help us understand and evaluate contemporary theories of nationalism. Based on the Balkan experience, the article evaluates theories of nationalism put forward by Ernest Gellner (1983), Benedict Anderson (1983), Miroslav Hroch (1985), Anthony Smith (1971) and John Hutchinson (1987). It finally identifies the degree to which religion and nationalism have adapted to serve domestic constraints, new ideological waves and opportunities for ethnonational expansion or contraction facing modern nationalist movements as argued elsewhere by Hroch (1985 & 1998), Magocsi (1997) and Laitin, (1998). Neophytos Loizides Articles http://works.bepress.com/neophytos_loizides/8 http://works.bepress.com/neophytos_loizides/8 Mon, 18 Aug 2008 04:31:10 PDT A two-round presidential election was held in Cyprus on February 17 and February 24, 2008. The election was the first to take place after the country’s accession to the European Union and the abortive UN-planned referendum on reunification in 2004. It was also the first to be contended and won by a leader of AKEL, the communist party of Cyprus. The 2008 election took place in a highly politicized environment, in the midst of concern over the future of bicommunal negotiations. Incumbent President Tassos Papadopoulos rallied the nationalist vote against his moderate rivals Ioannis Kasoulides from centre right DISY and Dimitris Christofias from AKEL. A surprise electoral outcome was the elimination of Tassos Papadopoulos in the first round despite polls predicting the contrary. Dimitris Christofias became President, and efforts to reunify the island resumed after his election to the presidency. Neophytos Loizides Articles http://works.bepress.com/neophytos_loizides/7 http://works.bepress.com/neophytos_loizides/7 Mon, 18 Aug 2008 04:23:46 PDT With the majority of peace agreements facing implementation problems at a global scale it is hardly surprising that questions about the political viability and workability of Annan Plan V featured prominently in the 2004 referendum campaigns of the two Cypriot communities. Preceding the referendum, one of the two major Greek Cypriot political parties, AKEL, justified its refusal to endorse the plan, citing issues of implementation, while in polls following the referendum, the majority of Greek Cypriots (61.9 per cent) stated they would support the plan if concerns on security and implementation were guaranteed (Christophoros Christophorou & Graig Webster 2004:4). Similar arguments on security and implementation were put forward in the Turkish Cypriot community, albeit with less success for the anti-deal camp. This chapter evaluates three main arguments made by opponents of the plan: a) the analogy drawn between the Annan Plan and the Zürich-London Agreements of 1959; b) the criticism of federalism and consociationalism as unfair and dysfunctional; and, finally, c) Turkey’s role and credibility in implementing the agreement, especially if it were denied EU membership. The chapter questions and criticizes the arguments and assumptions of the anti-deal camp, while at the same time recognizing important limitations and gaps in the Annan Plan itself. Neophytos Loizides Contributions to Books http://works.bepress.com/neophytos_loizides/6 http://works.bepress.com/neophytos_loizides/6 Sun, 17 Aug 2008 17:25:24 PDT This article examines the effects of elite framing in conflict transformation. It utilizes debates from the Turkish Grand National Assembly (TBMM) as the main source of empirical evidence and demonstrates differences in the way Turkish parliamentarians framed national and foreign policy issues in the 1990s. For the most part, elite framing of Kurdish issues was predominantly monolithic and adversarial towards ‘ethnic others’ demonstrating few challenges to dominant nationalist narratives and discourses, while framing of Greek-Turkish disputes was diverse, with moderates cautiously challenging hardliners on the necessity of cooperating with Greece. The article unravels these elite framing strategies and illustrates how framing becomes embedded in public identities, opportunity structures, and definitions of national interest, influencing crisis escalation and conflict management in the Eastern Mediterranean region. Neophytos Loizides Articles http://works.bepress.com/neophytos_loizides/5 http://works.bepress.com/neophytos_loizides/5 Sat, 19 Jan 2008 13:02:30 PST Neophytos Loizides Contributions to Books http://works.bepress.com/neophytos_loizides/4 http://works.bepress.com/neophytos_loizides/4 Sat, 29 Dec 2007 06:32:49 PST Greek–Turkish Dilemmas and the Cyprus EU Accession Process NEOPHYTOS G. LOIZIDES* Department of Political Science, University of Toronto, Canada This article compares the processes of foreign policymaking in Greece and Turkey in order to examine why the incentives and pressures of the enlargement process have failed until now to initiate a settlement in the Cyprus bicommunal negotiations. While most studies on the Cyprus problem have focused on the two communities of the island, little at-tention has been paid to the policies of the two ‘motherlands’, namely Greece and Turkey. Yet their leverage on the two Cypriot communities and their conflicting expectations with regard to an enlarged Europe in the Eastern Mediterranean constitute a complex security puzzle. The Republic of Cyprus stands as a champion candidate member for the next enlargement, amid fears of Turkish reprisals and hopes for a po-litical settlement on the island. With the benefits of settlement overwhelming the benefits of any other alternative, it is paradoxical that the parties seem to be about to fail to reach a last-minute, mutually beneficial compromise. I try to resolve this paradox by supplementing rational choice theory with cognitivist theories of international relations. While rational choice predicts a direct relationship between external environment and foreign policy shifts, the case of Cyprus suggests that this relationship is actually indirect. Without understanding how the external environment is framed in the domestic political discourse of Greece and Turkey, it is impossible to demonstrate how outside pressure and incentives affect foreign policy shifts. Neophytos Loizides Articles http://works.bepress.com/neophytos_loizides/3 http://works.bepress.com/neophytos_loizides/3 Sat, 29 Dec 2007 06:29:55 PST This article examines recent developments in the Cyprusnegotiations and suggests a number of changes to the proposed electoral system. Specifically, cross-voting and other electoral methods that encourage coalition-building across ethnic communities might add significantly to the functionality of the Annan Plan. Combined with other innovative mechanisms already in the plan, cross-voting could force political parties to seriously take into account the interests and concerns of the two Cypriot communities, an element that is currently missing fromboth the Turkish Cypriot (TC) and Greek Cypriot (GC) political systems. Special conditions on the island, as well as the way most political parties operated in the critical pre-April 2004 referendum period, suggest the need for this amendment. Although this study respects the consociational logic of the Annan Plan, it supplements consociationalism with elements that foster integration and inter-dependence between the two communities and their voters. The article also reviews the post referendumdevelopments in Cyprus which might have worrisome future implications, not only for its two communities,but also for EU enlargement in general. Cyprus both holds one of the keys to Turkey’s entrance into the EU and is a litmus test for the Euro-Atlantic nexus and its capacity to pacify and integrate ethnically divided societies in Europe and elsewhere. Neophytos Loizides Articles http://works.bepress.com/neophytos_loizides/2 http://works.bepress.com/neophytos_loizides/2 Sat, 29 Dec 2007 06:09:04 PST Ethnic Nationalism and Adaptation in Cyprus NEOPHYTOS G. LOIZIDES Queen’s University Belfast Both ethnic communities in Cyprus have maintained strong political and cultural ties with Greece and Turkey, respectively, and at some point of their twentieth century history, each has aspired to become part of either the former or the latter. Yet the way this relationship has been imagined has differed across time, space, and class. Both communities have adapted their identities to prevailing ideological waves as well as political opportunities, domestic alliances, and interests. The article evaluates different responses to ethnic nationalism, highlighting important intra-ethnic differentiations within each Cypriot community usually expressed in the positions of political parties, intellectuals, and the press. While the current literature identifies two major poles of identity in the island, ‘‘motherland nationalism’’ and ‘‘Cypriotism,’’ the article suggests that the major focus of identity of Cypriots is identification with their respective ethnic communities in the form of Greek Cypriotism or Turkish Cypriotism. In fact, contentious politics in Cyprus from the ENOSIS/TAKSIM struggle to the April 2004 referendums demonstrate the interplay of external constraints and collective self-identification processes leading to the formation of these identities. The article concludes by identifying the implications of identity shifts for deeply divided societies and conflict resolution in general. Neophytos Loizides Articles http://works.bepress.com/neophytos_loizides/1 http://works.bepress.com/neophytos_loizides/1 Sat, 29 Dec 2007 05:52:16 PST Crisis Management in the Eastern Mediterranean (Implications for Policymakers) Neophytos G. Loizides* RÉSUMÉ Cet article examine le comportement de la Grèce et de la Turquie pendant les périodes de crise dans la Méditerranée Orientale durant les dernières deux décennies. Les crises sont définies et classifiées, et un nombre de fausses perceptions sont examinées à la lumière des expériences récentes. Trois larges catégories de crises de la politique étrangère sont analysées: Celles impliquant des minorités qui ont des liens ethniques à travers les frontières, celles avec des minorités « étrangères » à l’intérieur des frontières, et celles impliquant des tiers pays intéressés par leurs territoires et leurs ressources. L’auteur examine si les crises sont simplement provoquées par les élites, ou partiellement endossées et motivées par les masses dans les deux pays, et si le comportement greco-turc de crise reflète des rivalités ethniques de longue date, des intérêts de securité spécifiques, ou des besoins politiques et des normes domestiques. L’article s’inspire de l’expérience greco-turque durant les dernières deux décennies pour éclairer des dilemmes et des problèmes actuels auxquels font face les décideurs en matière de politique dans la région. ABSTRACT This article examines Greek-Turkish crisis behaviour in the Eastern Mediterranean over the past two decades. Crises are first defined and classified, after which a number of common misperceptions are then addressed in light of recent experience. Three broad categories of foreign policy crises are analyzed: 1) those involving ethnically related minorities across the border; 2) those with ‘alien’ minorities within borders; and 3) those with third countries involving territories and resources. The article examines whether crises are simply élite-driven or partly endorsed and motivated by mass publics in both countries, and whether Greek-Turkish crisis behaviour reflects enduring ethnic rivalries, ‘genuine’ security interests, or domestic political needs and norms. The article draws upon the Greek-Turkish experience of the past two decades to illuminate contemporary dilemmas and issues which policymakers face in this region. Neophytos Loizides Articles