Poetry
Political Science
PDF
There are perhaps many good arguments for Iowa maintaining its "first in the nation" status,...
PDF
The October 2008 issue of PS published a symposium of presidential and congressional forecasts made...
PDF
The statistical modelers are back. The presidential election forecasting errors of 2000 did not repeat...
Link
This paper presents a natural experiment, comparing the effects of two-round (TR) and proportional representation...
Link
Scientific election forecasting has become a thriving enterprise in the leading democracies, and France is...
The American Voter Revisited (with William G. Jacoby, Helmut Norpoth, and Herbert F. Weisberg) (2008)
Today we are politically polarized as never before. The presidential elections of 2000 and 2004...
Link
Here, we address the issue of forecasting from statistical models, and how they might be...
Link
Conventional wisdom argues that national economic perceptions generally have an important impact on the vote...
Link
Despite expectations of a landslide, the French public barely approved the Maastricht Treaty in 1992....
Link
The impact of the French double-ballot is controversial. Some have argued that it performs as...
Link
The debate over the relative importance of ideology versus party for vote choice in France...
PDF
Evans and Andersen make the provocative argument that the effects of economic perceptions on political...
Link
Since the French political system exhibits imperfect 'bipolar multipartism', à la Duverger, we do see...
Link
Recently, we proposed an original statistical model for forecasting general elections in the United Kingdom,...
Link
To forecast an election means to declare the outcome before it happens. Scientific approaches to...
PDF
The Jobs Model of presidential election forecasting predicted well in 2004. The model, based on...
PDF
During spring 2000, we released to the press a preliminary forecast of a Gore victory....
Link
Election forecasting, as a science with models to be tested, got its start in political...
Link
With the notable exception of Mughan (1987), forecasting attempts in the United Kingdom have been...
Why do French voters vote the way they do? In this book, leading international scholars...
PDF
Split-ticket voting has recently received special attention, because it provides a possible microlevel explanation for...
Causal Modeling (with Tim Futing Liao), The Sage Encyclopedia of Social Science Research Methods (2004)
Regression, The Sage Encyclopedia of Social Science Research Methods (2004)
R-squared, The Sage Encyclopedia of Social Science Research Methods (2004)
Link
For advanced democracies, models of electoral behavior are rather well developed. However, such models may...
Link
French politicians sometimes change election rules for political advantage. In the Spring of 2001, the...
PDF
In French election studies, a central debate concerns the French voter's "standing decision" -- is...
Link
National economic conditions regularly influence outcomes in U.S. presidential elections. However, beyond this simple finding,...
Link
Economic conditions shape election outcomes in the world's democracies. Good times keep parties in office,...
Link
The economic vote exists in France, as in other Western democracies. Little is known, however,...
How France Votes takes as context the presidential election of 1995, which saw the triumph...
Link
In France, political observers and politicians pay considerable attention to public opinion polls, using them...
Link
Much presidential election forecasting research employs macromodels based on national economic and political fluctuations. Micromodels...
Link
In advanced democracies, are local political decisions determined by local events? Or are they really...
Link
Standard economic voting models assume a dominant locus of policy responsibility, a single chief executive...
Link
In common with scholars in other leading democracies, election researchers of France and the United...
OpenURL
Presidential election forecasting models may miss the mark, sometimes grossly, as the 1992 contest demonstrated....
PDF
During the nineteenth century, a presidential voter actually selected a party-prepared candidate list, casting it...
This accessible introduction to data analysis focuses on the interpretation of statistical results, in particular...
PDF
In comparative politics, an established finding--that economic development fosters democratic performance--has recently come under challenge....
PDF
In their pivotal 1986 volume, Converse and Pierce rekindle the debate over whether left-right ideological...
Link
The National Front (FN) has become a serious force in the French electoral arena. What...
France (with Andrew Skalaban), Electoral Change: Responses to Evolving Social and Attitudinal Structures in Western Countries (1992)
Link
French national election outcomes (presidential and National Assembly contests, 1958–1988) can be predicted rather accurately...
PDF
Political scientists usually view the New Deal as transforming the American state. A sizable literature...
Revised versions of papers given at a meeting in 1987 at the Villa Serbelloni in...
Link
In Western European studies, general investigations of mass political participation are an established tradition. However,...
Link
Beyond simple description, not much is known about voting for regional parties in Western Europe,...
PDF
Political science, unlike economics, does not have a long tradition of forecasting models. However, this...
Link
The time horizon of economic voting is unsettled. Each aggregate time series study offers a...
Link
Some prominent economists have argued that the structure of a nation's economic life – capitalist...
Link
Not much is known about the fundamentals of electoral behavior in the new Spanish democracy....
Link
Analyzes survey data on economics and elections, gathered in 1983 in Great Britain, France, Germany...
PDF
One autumn out of four, election forecasting surpasses baseball as America's national pastime. Then, everyone...
Link
Examines the existence of some relationship between economics and elections in the United States. Personalizing...
PDF
For American politicians, big government is a perennial issue. Scholars, however, have neglected it. In...
Does economics influence elections? How does such influence work? Under what conditions is it more...
Link
We offer a model of incumbent party seat change in House elections which provides true...
Link
Our primary aim is to forecast, rather than explain, presidential election results, using aggregate time...
Link
In the United States, uncertainties surrounding the aggregate time series evidence on economic conditions and...
Link
According to the folk wisdom of American politics, a presidential candidate has a vote advantage...
Link
For the United States, the issue of the impact of aggregate economic conditions on legislative...
Link
The president's popularity rating is highly predictive of his vote share in a reelection bid,...
PDF
With the 1970 passage of the Occupational Safety and Health Act (OSHA), federal regulation reached...
Link
There is a growing body of research which treats the effects of economic conditions on...
Link
While theorists have scrutinized the causes of revolution, they have avoided systematic study of its...
PDF
What is the political role of the peasantry? Is it a source of revolution or...
Link
Research on agrarian political behavior in the United States is scant. The comprehensive treatment that...
Link
Equalization of decision-making influence and organizational innovation are two variables that have received much study...
Link
Various methods have been proposed for evaluating the importance of an independent variable in determining...
