Articles
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There are perhaps many good arguments for Iowa maintaining its "first in the nation" status,...
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The October 2008 issue of PS published a symposium of presidential and congressional forecasts made...
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The statistical modelers are back. The presidential election forecasting errors of 2000 did not repeat...
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This paper presents a natural experiment, comparing the effects of two-round (TR) and proportional representation...
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Scientific election forecasting has become a thriving enterprise in the leading democracies, and France is...
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Here, we address the issue of forecasting from statistical models, and how they might be...
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Conventional wisdom argues that national economic perceptions generally have an important impact on the vote...
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Despite expectations of a landslide, the French public barely approved the Maastricht Treaty in 1992....
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The impact of the French double-ballot is controversial. Some have argued that it performs as...
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The debate over the relative importance of ideology versus party for vote choice in France...
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Evans and Andersen make the provocative argument that the effects of economic perceptions on political...
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Since the French political system exhibits imperfect 'bipolar multipartism', à la Duverger, we do see...
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Recently, we proposed an original statistical model for forecasting general elections in the United Kingdom,...
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To forecast an election means to declare the outcome before it happens. Scientific approaches to...
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The Jobs Model of presidential election forecasting predicted well in 2004. The model, based on...
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During spring 2000, we released to the press a preliminary forecast of a Gore victory....
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Election forecasting, as a science with models to be tested, got its start in political...
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With the notable exception of Mughan (1987), forecasting attempts in the United Kingdom have been...
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Split-ticket voting has recently received special attention, because it provides a possible microlevel explanation for...
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For advanced democracies, models of electoral behavior are rather well developed. However, such models may...
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French politicians sometimes change election rules for political advantage. In the Spring of 2001, the...
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In French election studies, a central debate concerns the French voter's "standing decision" -- is...
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National economic conditions regularly influence outcomes in U.S. presidential elections. However, beyond this simple finding,...
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Economic conditions shape election outcomes in the world's democracies. Good times keep parties in office,...
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The economic vote exists in France, as in other Western democracies. Little is known, however,...
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In France, political observers and politicians pay considerable attention to public opinion polls, using them...
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Much presidential election forecasting research employs macromodels based on national economic and political fluctuations. Micromodels...
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In advanced democracies, are local political decisions determined by local events? Or are they really...
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Standard economic voting models assume a dominant locus of policy responsibility, a single chief executive...
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In common with scholars in other leading democracies, election researchers of France and the United...
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Presidential election forecasting models may miss the mark, sometimes grossly, as the 1992 contest demonstrated....
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During the nineteenth century, a presidential voter actually selected a party-prepared candidate list, casting it...
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In comparative politics, an established finding--that economic development fosters democratic performance--has recently come under challenge....
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In their pivotal 1986 volume, Converse and Pierce rekindle the debate over whether left-right ideological...
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The National Front (FN) has become a serious force in the French electoral arena. What...
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French national election outcomes (presidential and National Assembly contests, 1958–1988) can be predicted rather accurately...
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Political scientists usually view the New Deal as transforming the American state. A sizable literature...
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In Western European studies, general investigations of mass political participation are an established tradition. However,...
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Beyond simple description, not much is known about voting for regional parties in Western Europe,...
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Political science, unlike economics, does not have a long tradition of forecasting models. However, this...
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The time horizon of economic voting is unsettled. Each aggregate time series study offers a...
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Some prominent economists have argued that the structure of a nation's economic life – capitalist...
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Not much is known about the fundamentals of electoral behavior in the new Spanish democracy....
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Analyzes survey data on economics and elections, gathered in 1983 in Great Britain, France, Germany...
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One autumn out of four, election forecasting surpasses baseball as America's national pastime. Then, everyone...
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Examines the existence of some relationship between economics and elections in the United States. Personalizing...
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For American politicians, big government is a perennial issue. Scholars, however, have neglected it. In...
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We offer a model of incumbent party seat change in House elections which provides true...
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Our primary aim is to forecast, rather than explain, presidential election results, using aggregate time...
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In the United States, uncertainties surrounding the aggregate time series evidence on economic conditions and...
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According to the folk wisdom of American politics, a presidential candidate has a vote advantage...
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For the United States, the issue of the impact of aggregate economic conditions on legislative...
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The president's popularity rating is highly predictive of his vote share in a reelection bid,...
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With the 1970 passage of the Occupational Safety and Health Act (OSHA), federal regulation reached...
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There is a growing body of research which treats the effects of economic conditions on...
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While theorists have scrutinized the causes of revolution, they have avoided systematic study of its...
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What is the political role of the peasantry? Is it a source of revolution or...
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Research on agrarian political behavior in the United States is scant. The comprehensive treatment that...
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Equalization of decision-making influence and organizational innovation are two variables that have received much study...
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Various methods have been proposed for evaluating the importance of an independent variable in determining...
Books
The American Voter Revisited (with William G. Jacoby, Helmut Norpoth, and Herbert F. Weisberg) (2008)
Today we are politically polarized as never before. The presidential elections of 2000 and 2004...
Why do French voters vote the way they do? In this book, leading international scholars...
How France Votes takes as context the presidential election of 1995, which saw the triumph...
This accessible introduction to data analysis focuses on the interpretation of statistical results, in particular...
Revised versions of papers given at a meeting in 1987 at the Villa Serbelloni in...
Does economics influence elections? How does such influence work? Under what conditions is it more...
Contributions to Books
Causal Modeling (with Tim Futing Liao), The Sage Encyclopedia of Social Science Research Methods (2004)
R-squared, The Sage Encyclopedia of Social Science Research Methods (2004)
Regression, The Sage Encyclopedia of Social Science Research Methods (2004)
France (with Andrew Skalaban), Electoral Change: Responses to Evolving Social and Attitudinal Structures in Western Countries (1992)
