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Article
Global Stability of Nonlinear Stochastic SEI Epidemic Model with Fluctuations in Transmission Rate of Disease
International Journal of Stochastic Analysis (2017)
  • Olusegun M Otunuga, Marshall University
Abstract
We derive and analyze the dynamic of a stochastic SEI epidemic model for disease spread. Fluctuations in the transmission rate of the disease bring about stochasticity in model. We discuss the asymptotic stability of the infection-free equilibrium by first deriving the closed form deterministic ($R_{0}$) and stochastic ($\mathcal{R}_{0}$) basic reproductive number. Contrary to some author's remark that different diffusion rates have no effect on the stability of the disease-free equilibrium, we showed that even if no epidemic invasion occurs with respect to the deterministic version of the SEI model (that is, $R_{0}<1$), epidemic can still grow initially (if $\mathcal{R}_{0}>1$) because of the presence of noise in the stochastic version of the model. That is, diffusion rates can have effect on the stability by causing a transient epidemic advance. A threshold criterion for epidemic invasion was derived in the presence of external noise.
Keywords
  • Susceptible; Exposed; Infected; Stochastic; Epidemic; Stratonovich; Stability; Reproductive number
Publication Date
Spring January 23, 2017
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1155/2017/6313620
Citation Information
Olusegun M Otunuga. "Global Stability of Nonlinear Stochastic SEI Epidemic Model with Fluctuations in Transmission Rate of Disease" International Journal of Stochastic Analysis Vol. 2017 (2017) p. 1 - 7
Available at: http://works.bepress.com/michael-otunuga/5/